Fantasy Football 1-Week Frenzy Forecast
Just when you think you have this whole fantasy football thing figured out, last week happens. How else do you explain Tom Brady going from playing at a Super Bowl level to playing at a Pop Warner level, or Vincent Jackson breaking the hearts of every fantasy enthusiast who put him in their lineups? Alas, we are still here to do our part to help you put together the best lineup possible.
Quarterbacks 1
1) Peyton Manning (vs. Tennessee): Manning has a great match-up this week against the Titans, who he beat for 36 completions, 309 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 5, and who are second to last in pass defense and passing scores allowed. And yes, we know they've won their past five games, but in that time they've faced three teams currently in the bottom half of the league in passing offense and one team playing with a backup quarterback.
2) Tom Brady (@ Miami): A total of 237 passing yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions last week are shocking totals for Brady, especially considering that he was in the midst of a string of five consecutive 300-yard passing games. But a bounce back this week is very possible against a Miami pass defense that is 23rd in the league, and one that he threw for 310 yards and one score against in Week 9.
3) Drew Brees (@ Washington): Although no one can be blamed for using Brees this week, match-ups matter, and Washington has the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. Only three opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 200 yards against the Redskins this season, and it's happened just once over their last eight games. And it's not as if Brees is immune to quality pass defenses - three times this season he's been held to fewer than 200 passing yards.
4) Matt Schaub (@ Jacksonville): Schaub is a great choice in any fantasy football scoring format, but considering the amount of completions he racks up, he's an especially good option in this one. He's third in the league in overall completions, and has at least 25 in each of his last four games. Jacksonville is 26th in the league in pass defense, and only six teams have allowed more touchdown passes than they have. In his last meeting with the Jags, back in Week 3, Schaub threw for 300 yards with three scores.
5) Philip Rivers (@ Cleveland): Rivers is quietly putting together a very good season, and has an impressive three-game stretch going where he hasn't thrown an interception and has completed at least 75 percent of his passes. Cleveland's horrible pass defense shouldn't offer him a great challenge.
6) Kurt Warner (vs. Minnesota): Though there's optimism surrounding his chances to play this week (concussion), and his match-up is a solid one, there's always a chance he doesn't play at all or gets knocked out of the competition.
Quarterbacks 2
1) Brett Favre (@ Arizona): Favre has been nothing short of remarkable this season, with an unheard of 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (24 touchdown throws, three interceptions). Over his last four games, he has thrown 12 touchdowns and hasn't thrown an interception. Against the Cardinals, he should be golden; only three teams allow more passing yards per game than they do.
2) Aaron Rodgers (vs. Baltimore): Rodgers has thrown 14 touchdowns over his last six games, and just three interceptions, and all of those picks came in one contest. In his last two contests he's thrown for over 340 yards in each, and he's completed at least 25 passes in each of his last three games. Baltimore is in the top half of the league in pass defense, but they're not so imposing that you shouldn't consider using Rodgers.
3) Donovan McNabb (@ Atlanta): McNabb has had some very ordinary games of late, and over his last five contests, he's thrown six touchdowns and five interceptions. Though McNabb could very likely be without top receiver DeSean Jackson, he's still a solid option this week because his opponent, Atlanta, is putrid against the pass, ranking 27th in the league in that category and 22nd in passing touchdowns given up.
4) Carson Palmer (vs. Detroit): Palmer isn't putting up numbers like we've seen him do in the past, and in fact hasn't completed more than 20 passes in his last five games, but he's playing Detroit this week. The same Detroit that is dead last in pass defense, and who has allowed more touchdown passes than any team in the NFL.
5) Tony Romo (@ NY Giants): Romo has had a solid season overall, and is seventh in the league in passing yards, ahead of the likes of Brett Favre and Kurt Warner. Yet he hasn't completed more than 20 passes in either of his last two games, and the last time he faced the Giants, he threw for a season-low 127 yards with three interceptions and one score.
6) Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Oakland): Big Ben will suit up this week after sitting out last week's contest against the Ravens with concussion symptoms. This led to some controversy, at least within the Steelers' locker room, but that has since died down. Roethlisberger does have a tough individual match-up this week against Oakland, however; only four teams have allowed fewer touchdown passes than they have.
Quarterbacks 3
1) Joe Flacco (@ Green Bay): IFlacco seemed to have been mired in a slump in Weeks 8-11. He threw for over 200 yards just once in those games, and tossed just one touchdown and three interceptions. But he rallied last week, throwing for nearly 300 yards with one score and no picks, and though his opponent this week, the Packers, are sixth in the NFL in pass defense, only three teams have allowed more touchdown passes than they have.
2) Jay Cutler (vs. St. Louis): Since interceptions aren't a worry in this scoring format, Cutler's transgressions in that area needn't play a role in deciding whether to put him in your lineup, especially against a soft pass defense like the Rams possess. But his confidence does seem to be wavering, and he hasn't thrown for even 175 yards in either of his past two games, and in his past three games he's thrown a total of two touchdowns and eight picks.
3) Vince Young (@ Indianapolis): Young was simply spectacular last week, but don't let that cloud your judgment for his game at Indy this week. He was facing an atrocious pass defense in the Cardinals last week, and the Colts are a much more formidable foe, especially with Young playing on the road. Also, only the Jets have given up fewer touchdown passes than they have.
4) Matt Cassel (vs. Denver): After a truly mediocre start, Cassel seems to have found his footing a bit. He's thrown for 215 or more yards in three of his last four contests, along with five touchdowns and two interceptions during that time. It should also be noted that he'll give you at least a few points running the ball - he's had at least four rushing attempts in seven of his 10 games this year.
5) Matt Hasselbeck (vs. San Francisco): Fantasy football players are justifiably baffled by Hasselbeck, who went from throwing for 315 yards against Arizona three weeks ago to accumulating just 102 passing yards last week against the Rams. He's at home against the 49ers this week, and San Francisco is just 28th in the NFL in pass defense, but it's too difficult to trust Hasselbeck.
6) David Garrard (vs. Houston): Garrard simply doesn't thrown enough touchdowns to be a viable fantasy football option; among the 24 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 pass attempts, he is tied with Jake Delhomme for the fewest touchdown passes, having thrown only eight.
Quarterbacks 4
1) Kyle Orton (@ Kansas City): Orton's season has been solid, if unspectacular. He's thrown for more than 250 yards just once this season, and over his last five games has just three touchdown passes, but you can't ignore who his opponent is this week - only two other teams allow more passing yards per game than the Chiefs.
2) Alex Smith (@ Seattle): Smith's career has been resurrected this season, and fantasy football enthusiasts have taken note. They should again this week as he matches up with the Seahawks, a team that is 25th in the league in pass defense and 27th in passing scores allowed.
3) Eli Manning (vs. Dallas): The last time Manning went up against the Cowboys, he blistered them for 330 yards and two scores, though you should take into account that that game was played back in Week 2. Manning is highly inconsistent and is also playing on a bad foot, so while his match-up is solid, can you really count on him?
4) Jason Campbell (@ Philadelphia): Campbell hasn't been a great quarterback this season, but his numbers haven't been atrocious, either. He's thrown for at least one touchdown in all but three games this year, and the last time he faced Philly, he had a season-high 29 completions, along with 284 yards and two scores.
5) Josh Freeman (@ Carolina): Freeman is getting plenty of accolades, and he's performed admirably in a couple games, but you'll probably want to avoid him this week. The Panthers have the No. 3 pass defense in the league, and are ninth in passing scores allowed.
6) Brady Quinn (vs. San Diego): Simply ignore Quinn.
Running Backs 1
1) Chris Johnson (@ Indianapolis): Johnson has been on a run that's as remarkable as anything the NFL or fantasy football has seen in some time. In his last six games, he's averaged 155 rushing yards on 23 carries (6.7 ypc), just over one touchdown (he has seven total in that span), and close to three receptions and 30 receiving yards per game.
2) Adrian Peterson (@ Arizona): Despite having only three games with at least 100 rushing yards, Peterson is still playing very well. He has 12 touchdowns in 11 games, and has already established a career-high with 27 receptions. Arizona has been killed on the ground of late, giving up 115 or more yards to an individual runner in four of their past five games.
3) Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. Houston): MJD has scored three rushing touchdowns in a game on two occasions this season, and one of them happened to be against the Texans, back in Week 3. He also caught four passes in that contest, one of seven times he's had at least that many receptions in a game. He's always an excellent option.
4) Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Oakland): No team has allowed more rushing yards to opposing running backs than the Raiders have, and only two teams have allowed opposing backs to score more touchdowns.
5) Steven Jackson (@ Chicago): Like Philip Rivers at quarterback, Jackson is quietly having an excellent season, though you can hardly blame anyone for not noticing that Jackson is the NFL's second-leading rusher because he's on a team that has won just one game. Nonetheless, he's always valuable in this scoring format not only because of the yards he piles up, but because of the amount of touches he receives.
6) Frank Gore (@ Seattle): Gore is always solid, but compared to the rest of this group, he doesn't get enough touches. He's carried the ball more than 16 times just twice all season, and has just 92 rushing yards over his past two games.
Running Backs 2
1) DeAngelo Williams (vs. Tampa Bay): Before last week's 40-yard performance, Williams had been averaging 127 yards over his previous six games. But he should come back with aplomb this week against a Tampa team that is 30th in the league in run defense, and against whom Williams had 152 yards and two scores against in Week 6.
2) Ray Rice (@ Green Bay): Over his last eight games, Rice has run for at least 70 yards six times (with one 69-yard effort), and has caught fewer than five passes just once. With receptions being three points each, that kind of production is highly valuable.
3) Ricky Williams (vs. New England): Williams has at least 20 carries, 100 yards and one touchdown in each of his three games since taking over for the injured Ronnie Brown in Miami. New England is tied for fewest rushing scores allowed, having given up just three all season, but one of the backs who found the end zone against them happened to be Williams.
4) Knowshon Moreno (@ Kansas City): Moreno has run for at least 80 yards in each of his past three games, and has a fantastic match-up this week against the Chiefs, who are 27th against the run and 22nd in rushing scores allowed.
5) Cedric Benson (vs. Detroit): Benson has missed two contests with a hip injury, but he's supposed to be back in the starting lineup this week. But Larry Johnson did a solid job filling in last week, and they may not want to overdo it with Benson this week.
6) Joseph Addai (vs. Tennessee): Addai simply is not putting up the numbers the other backs in this group have been; he's only run for 70 or more yards once all season, and has not carried the ball more than 20 times in any game.
Running Backs 3
1) LaDainian Tomlinson (@ Cleveland): Tomlinson has scored five times in his last three games, making up for otherwise ordinary numbers. He's not catching the ball like he used to (three receptions over his last five games), and he's run for at least 75 yards just once this year. But only three teams have allowed more rushing yards than the Browns, and only two teams have given up more rushing scores to opposing running backs.
2) Matt Forte (vs. St. Louis): Only the Bills have allowed more rushing scores to opposing running backs than St. Louis has, and if this were last season, Forte would be No. 1 on this list. As it is, he's struggling mightily this year running the ball. One thing that should be considered in this scoring format - he has averaged over five receptions per game in his last four contests.
3) Laurence Maroney (@ Miami): Over his last six games, Maroney has scored eight times, accounting for all of his touchdowns this season. Unfortunately, he also has lost a fumble in three consecutive games, and any more could mean fewer carries for him.
4) Kevin Smith (@ Cincinnati): Smith hasn't gained 70 or more rushing yards in eight games, and the Bengals are the No. 3-ranked rush defense in the league. The only thing saving him from being ranked last on this list is his ability to catch the ball.
5) Ryan Grant (vs. Baltimore): No doubt Grant has had a solid year, but a lot of things are working against him - Baltimore is seventh in run defense and allows the fewest yards per carry in the league, he doesn't catch the ball with regularity, and he sat out a practice this week with a stinger.
6) Tim Hightower (vs. Minnesota): Not only is Hightower going to lose more and more playing time to Beanie Wells, but he's going up against the team that is second in the NFL in run defense, and the team that is tied in allowing the fewest rushing scores in the league.
Running Backs 4
1) LeSean McCoy (@ Atlanta): Brian Westbrook remains out, and DeSean Jackson is likely to be sidelined as well, leaving McCoy to be an even bigger piece of the puzzle this week. Atlanta's defense is sub-par in every area, and they are just 23rd in the league against the run. Something else to note - only one team has given up more receiving touchdowns to running backs than the Falcons have.
2) Jamaal Charles (vs. Denver): Charles has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown in each of his last three games since taking over after Larry Johnson was cut. He's an explosive player who makes things happen, and now that he's getting an opportunity, he's making the most of it.
3) Cadillac Williams (@ Carolina): The Caddy has a very good match-up against the 26th-ranked Panthers run defense, and it is one he gained 77 yards and scored a touchdown against back in Week 6, but he's also done very little since then. He hasn't rushed for even 60 yards in his past five games, or run for over 3.7 yards per carry.
4) Pierre Thomas (@ Washington): If only he were the clear-cut No. 1. As it is, he shares time with a couple other running backs, and though he's productive with the carries he does get, he really doesn't get enough looks to put up the big numbers he might be able to elsewhere.
5) Steve Slaton (@ Jacksonville): The Texans are still having trust issues with Slaton due to his previous fumbleitis, and he's dealing with a neck malady, so we'll have to see how many touches he gets, and until then, it's not safe to trust him.
6) Beanie Wells (vs. Minnesota): Leave Wells on the bench against one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Wide Receivers 1
1) Wes Welker (@ Miami): With only six catches for 32 yards, Welker had his worst game of the season last week. He'll right the ship this week against a Miami team that he burned for nine catches and 84 yards in Week 9. Welker leads the NFL in catches, even though he missed two weeks, and with receptions at three points each, you can't go wrong using him.
2) Reggie Wayne (vs. Tennessee): The man with the second-most catches this season is Wayne, and his match-up is beautiful. No team has allowed opposing wideouts to catch more passes or score more touchdowns, and they've also allowed opposing receivers to accumulate the second-most receiving yards (by one yard). Wayne had six catches for 60 yards and one score against the Titans in Week 5.
3) Andre Johnson (@ Jacksonville): Only three teams have given up more receiving yards and receiving scores than the Jaguars have, and Johnson is the perfect person to exploit that weakness. He had four catches for 86 yards against them back in Week 3.
4) Randy Moss (@ Miami): Moss leads the league in receiving yards, but you wouldn't know that by the way he's played the last two weeks. He's accumulated only 101 yards combined in those two games, though a reprieve could very much be in the works this week - he blistered the Dolphins for 147 yards on six receptions (including one touchdown) when he first met them in Week 9.
5) Chad Ochocinco (vs. Detroit): The Ocho has stunk over his last five games, with no more than five receptions in any of them, and not one contest of even 70 receiving yards. Yet he plays the Lions this week, and he can easily fatten up on them - they're dead last in pass defense and have passing touchdowns allowed.
6) Larry Fitzgerald (vs. Minnesota): If Kurt Warner plays, Fitzgerald should be moved up in the rankings, but if noodle-armed Matt Leinart goes again, there are too many other receivers in this group to choose from who have Pro Bowl quarterbacks throwing to them.
Wide Receivers 2
1) Vincent Jackson (@ Cleveland): Jackson's disappearance over the last three games has been troubling. He hasn't scored since in that time, and he's accumulated a total of seven catches and 93 yards. But he has to bust out of it at some point, and it would be no shock if he did so against the terrifically awful Browns.
2) Mike Sims-Walker (vs. Houston): Three times in his past five games, Sims-Walker has accumulated fewer than 50 receiving yards, but he has scored three times in that span, easing the pain that was inflicted by his lack of yards. In his last game against the Texans, in Week 3, he had six catches for 81 yards.
3)Roddy White (vs. Philadelphia): White has not been as productive this season as he was last year in terms of yardage, and if he hadn't been scoring so many touchdowns, he would be a real disappointment. Yet he does have seven on the season, and he scored last week for the first time in three games.
4) Marques Colston (@ Washington): Colston caught one of Drew Brees' five touchdown passes last week, which was one of his four receptions and 121 yards. It was his first score in three weeks, but don't be too confident he can repeat that feat this week. The Redskins have allowed the second-fewest catches by opposing wide receivers.
5) Anquan Boldin (vs. Minnesota): Boldin is, surprisingly, not among the top-25 players in receiving yards, and possibly even more surprisingly, has just two touchdown catches this season. He was starting to play better before Kurt Warner went out, and if Warner does play this week, Boldin is a much more viable option than if the weak left arm of Matt Leinart has to play.
6) Steve Smith (CAR) (vs. Tampa Bay): He had one reception for five yards last week. Five yards! Jake Delhomme is likely out, and though that's probably a good thing in the long run, it means the Panthers will simply rely more on the running game than usual this week.
Wide Receivers 3
1) Brandon Marshall (@ Kansas City): Just four teams have allowed more yards to opposing wide receivers than the Chiefs have, and Marshall typically destroys soft defenses. In two games against the Chiefs last season, he had 18 catches for 168 yards and three touchdowns.
2) Steve Smith (NYG) (vs. Dallas): After a bit of a three-game lull, Smith is back to catching oodles of passes. He's amassed seven or more receptions in three of his last four games, and has 65 or more yards in four of his last five games. And the last time he faced Dallas, he went ballistic, scoring once on one of his 10 receptions for 134 yards.
3) Santonio Holmes (vs. Oakland): Holmes finally did something that his fantasy owners have been waiting for since Week 1 - he scored his second touchdown of the season last week! Holmes has actually been playing very well of late, and that finally paid off. He has had at least six receptions and 74 receiving yards in each of his last four games.
4) Pierre Garcon (vs. Tennessee): Garcon is clearly the No. 2 man behind Reggie Wayne on the wideout depth chart in Indy. He had five receptions for 63 yards and one touchdown last week, and has at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last five games.
5) Robert Meachem (@ Washington): What hurts Meachem in this scoring format are his lack of receptions. And he also has a tough match-up this week, going up against the No. 1-ranked pass defense of the Redskins.
6) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (vs. San Francisco): If he can't get it done against the Rams, who can he get it done against? He's been a fantasy football bust all season.
Wide Receivers 4
1) Sidney Rice (@ Arizona): Of the top 15 players in terms of receiving yards, only Miles Austin is averaging more yards per reception than Rice's 17.2, a number that has catapulted Rice to third in the league in receiving yards despite just 56 receptions.
2) Derrick Mason (@ Green Bay): Mason has now had three very productive games in a row after his seven-catch, 62-yard, one touchdown performance last week against the Steelers. His opponent this week, the Packers, are sixth in the league in pass defense, but have also allowed more touchdown passes than all but three other teams.
3) Nate Burleson (vs. San Francisco): Burleson came up very short last week against the Rams, a team he should have torched. He managed just four receptions for 46 yards against a bad pass defense, and he failed to score for the sixth straight game. Burleson has a solid match-up against the 49ers, who are 28th in the NFL in pass defense.
4) Hines Ward (vs. Oakland): Ward apologized after being critical of Ben Roethlisberger last week after Big Ben didn't play due to a concussion. He insists there are no lingering hard feelings among the two, which is good, because that means Ward can go back to being one of the most productive wideouts in the NFL.
5) Santana Moss (@ Philadelphia): He's far too unreliable. There are much better options in this group.
6) Braylon Edwards (@ Buffalo): Edwards should not be used.
Wide Receivers 5
1) Calvin Johnson (@ Cincinnati): If you're going to take a chance on Megatron, now is as good a time as ever. He only caught two passes for 10 yards last week, but he did score a touchdown for the second straight week, and also has at least five receptions in five of the nine games he's played this season.
2) Percy Harvin (@ Arizona): Harvin's best game as a pro came last week, as he caught a touchdown for the second week in a row while setting career-highs in receptions (six), receiving yards (101) and rushing yards (45). Against the Cardinals' 30th-ranked pass defense, more career-highs are possible.
3) Donald Driver (vs. Baltimore): Driver tore up the Lions on Thanksgiving and has had a nice layoff since then to rest his 34-year-old body. He's only caught fewer than four passes in a game just one time this season, and has scored in three of his last six contests.
4) Devin Hester (vs. St. Louis): Hester is in a big-time slump, and although the Rams can break any offensive player out of their malaise, his inconsistency should be worrisome. Hester has only 86 receiving yards in his last three games.
5) Donnie Avery (@ Chicago): Avery plays in an inconsistent offense with a quarterback that is named Kyle Boller. Probably best to avoid him.
6) Greg Jennings (vs. Baltimore): He's being outplayed by his teammate, the far more consistent Donald Driver.
Tight Ends 1
1) Tony Gonzalez (vs. Philadelphia): No team has allowed opposing tight ends to catch more passes than Philly has, and only one team has allowed more receiving yards and touchdowns to players at that position. Even with Matt Ryan sidelined, Gonzalez should not be penalized.
2) Dallas Clark (vs. Tennessee): Clark, who has caught a touchdown in two straight games, last played the Titans in Week 5, a game in which he caught nine passes for 77 yards. He's caught seven or more passes in seven of his 11 games this season, and that can add up to huge points in this scoring format.
3) Antonio Gates (@ Cleveland): Only six teams have allowed more touchdown passes to opposing tight ends then Cleveland, and Gates recently broke out of a funk last week against the Chiefs, catching seven balls for 118 yards and two scores.
4) Vernon Davis (@ Seattle): When Alex Smith made the transition to starting quarterback, he undoubtedly wanted to get his tight end involved. That's most certainly happened, as Davis has had at least one touchdown reception or 100 receiving yards (or both) in all but one of the six games the 49ers have played since Smith took over.
5) Jason Witten (@ NY Giants): Witten had his first 100-yard game of the season last week, and it was a long time coming for the preseason No. 1 fantasy football tight end. He has been consistent in catching the ball this season, catching exactly five passes in each of his last three games, and he doesn't have fewer than four receptions in any contest this year.
6) Visanthe Shiancoe (@ Arizona): Over his last eight games, Shiancoe has scored seven times. That's a great number, but within the context of this group of tight ends, he's not the top option on his team the way the other players here are.
Tight Ends 2
1) Brent Celek (@ Atlanta): Celek just signed a $33 million extension, and is certainly facing the right opponent in which to do prove he deserves that contract. Atlanta has allowed opposing tight ends to catch more passes than all but four other squads, and only three teams have allowed opposing tight ends to gain more receiving yards.
2) Greg Olsen (vs. St. Louis): Olsen is a solid play each week due to the fact that the Bears have a dearth of options at the receiver position, and the Rams have certainly been beaten by opposing tight ends before.
3) Kellen Winslow (@ Carolina): Winslow managed only 29 yards on three receptions the last time he squared off against the Panthers, but with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman at the helm, the situation is different this time around.
4) Zach Miller (Oakland Raiders): Bruce Gradkowski has really been beneficial to Miller - after little production over most of the season, he's combined for 10 receptions and 136 yards the last two weeks.
5) John Carlson (vs. San Francisco): With six catches for 46 yards in Week 2, one of Carlson's most productive games of the season came against San Francisco. That statistic alone should tell you how disappointing he's been this season.
6) Heath Miller (vs. Oakland): Despite how bad Oakland is, they completely shut down opposing tight ends - they are one of just two teams not to have allowed a touchdown reception by someone at that position.
5 Fantasy Players You'll Overlook For a Rookie
We've all been there, it's the 8th round of your fantasy draft and everyone's waiting. It's your pick and you're feeling the pressure. The player you wanted went to the guy before you and you've been caught off guard. Your fantasy team has the stud running backs and the great quarterback. You're solid at wide receiver (at least you think you are) and the late round sleeper Tight End you've been eye balling is good for a few more rounds. So who's it going be?
Insert the nothing pick.
The nothing pick is the guy you take and regret seconds after announcing his name. He's the guy everyone snickers at, the player that gets a punchline from your friend sitting across the table; he might be a sleeper, but more likely he's a reach.
Everyone loves that feeling of picking the fantasy player that gets the big commotion. The "Oh man, he's still around?" kind of response that puts a smile on your face. There's nothing like seeing your buddy drop the F-Bomb and pound the table. While that feeling is no doubt the highlight of your day, reaching on a player that never does anything for your fantasy team hurts ten times worse.
Selecting productive veteran workhorses is always a smarter pick than looking at the bottom of the page for some rookie that will be great in 2 years. The following are solid mid round players that are lacking the "sexy pick" nametag that add depth to your fantasy team. These players are projected around the 7th and 8th round. They're not superstars, but they'll beef up your depth and have little to zero risk.
WR Kevin Walter - The Texans always seem to get into a shootout with whoever they play. Andre Johnson demands double coverage consistently which allows Walter to find breathing room. Walter is a solid receiver to add to your roster; he can step in at any time for a bye week replacement or fill-in injury spot.
WR Hines Ward - This 33 year old receiver always gets the knock for being risky due to his age. 33 is no spring chicken, but Hines Ward is a magnet for the end zone, and in a bind he will get you some decent yardage. Last year was Hines Ward's first 1000 yard season since 2004.
QB Carson Palmer - It seems like it's been a while since we thought of Carson Palmer as a stud fantasy QB. The Bengals were the doormat of the league for years (some say they still are) and the only bright light was this former USC gunslinger. Palmer was becoming an elite fantasy player before another injury setback last year. With health concerns behind him, the Bengals can finally get back to the high power passing attack from 06-07. Grab some depth at quarterback, you'll thank yourself mid-season.
WR Donald Driver - The Packers are loaded with offensive weapons, which makes Driver a hard player to pick when to start, but regardless of the guessing game he is a 1000 yard WR. While defensive coordinators are scheming for Greg Jennings, Driver can make big catches and is fairly consistent with getting involved in the offense.
RB LenDale White - Would you really be upset with 6 carries for 18 yards and two easy gimme-touchdowns? LenDale White lost a little weight but he still gets the ball where it counts.
go to http://gridironexperts.com/ for more fantasy football info.
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Fantasy Football Preview - WR Rankings
WR Rankings
Tier 1
1. Chad Johnson(Bengals)
-Ocho Cinco once again had a brilliant season in 2006 as he caught 87 passes for 7 TD's. His rapport with QB Carson Palmer is a thing of beauty and they should continue to produce more of the same in 2007. The emergence of WR TJ Houshmanzadeh last year should also help Johnson in that he will mainly see one-on-one coverage. Draft the biggest sure-thing fantasy WR.
2. Steve Smith(Panthers)
-Carolina's emotional star WR recorded numbers that were a drop-off from his ridiculous 2005 season due to a hamstring injury that caused him to miss two games and affected his running ability for the entire first half of the year. Now fully healthy, Smith is in line to have a very big year once again. Favorite QB Jake Delhomme also is healthy heading into training camp and thus a season of at least 90 catches with 8 scores is a lock. Wouldn't quibble if you picked him over Johnson.
3. Torry Holt(Rams)
-your truly has owned Holt for the last four seasons and he is as big a reason as any that I have enjoyed great success in this game. The best route-runner in the game, Holt combines sprinters speed and soft hands to habitually turn out 90 catch, 8 TD seasons. Off-season surgery on his knee confirms that he isn't as young as he used to be but count on another two years of top player out of Marc Bulger's favorite target. Second round or very beginning of third round is where he will be chosen, hopefully by you.
4. Marvin Harrison(Colts)
-the ageless wonder turned in an incredible 2006 season, hauling in 93 passes with 10 scores at an age(35) where many receivers have started to decline. Of course you can't ignore Harrison's age when deciding whether to draft him or not but until he proves otherwise, then you would be foolish to pass on him. The chemistry he has with QB Peyton Manning is possibly the greatest passing show in NFL history and I believe Harrison will put up around the same numbers he did last season. In other words, he is a player you want to own.
5. Larry Fitzgerald(Cardinals)
-Fitzgerald took a little bobble in his development last season as his 69 catches and 6 TD's were not what fantasy owners expected after his breakout 2005 season. However injuries were the main cause of the diminished production and I look for Fitzgerald to have a big year as he builds his rapport with QB Matt Leinart. The presence of fellow Pro Bowler Anquan Boldin will allow Larry to get single coverage and at his size, he should have no trouble getting open and piling up the catches. While Boldin may have slightly more catches, Fitzgerald is the one who will grab the more TD's which in fantasy is the name of the game when it comes to scoring points. Draft him by the end of round 3 or if your lucky the top of round 4.
6. Terrell Owens(Cowboys)
-no one at the WR position will give fantasy owners more stress when it comes to deciding whether to draft him or not than Dallas' mercurial, moody pass catcher. There is no doubt that when healthy and he has his head on right, Owens can flat out dominate a game. He proved that once again in a comeback season(85 catches, 13 TD's) of sorts after the controversy/injury filled ending to his tenure in Philadelphia. Despite more than occasional drops, Owens is the best source out there for catching TD's and for boorish behavior. So if you plan on drafting him, just be prepared for both.
7. Reggie Wayne(Colts)
-once again taking a giant step forward in his development, Reggie Wayne is almost running neck-and-neck now with counterpart Marvin Harrison in the value department. Despite still being considered the number two wideout in Indy, Wayne's 86 catches and 9 TD's were numbers indicative of a true number 1 receiver. Smack dab in his prime at the age of 28, this could be the year Wayne takes the mantle of top dog in the WR hierarchy. Make sure you get this guy. I certainly will.
8. Anquan Boldin(Cardinals)
-the other half of Arizona's stud WR duo, Boldin once again was the go to guy in the passing game as far as total receptions are concerned(83 to Larry Fitzgerald's 69). Boldin will continue to pile up the catches and is thus extremely valuable in point/reception leagues. His lack of top-notch speed has proven to be a non-hindrance and he is ability to run crisp routes will ensure a solid season. Only negative is the fact he is not as big a TD producer as Arizona will look to the much larger Fitzgerald in the red zone. Solid weekly performer will be a great number 2 receiver.
9. Roy Williams(Lions)
-after injuries impacted his production his first two seasons, Roy Williams put it all together in 2006 as he recorded a career-high 82 receptions with 7 TD's. Williams has incredible size for his position and will win most one-on-one battles so an increase in TD's is more than likely. The drafting of WR Calvin Johnson will take away most of the double teams he faced last season and thus also has a chance to reach the 90-catch plateau. Draft him for a potentially larger breakout season than the year before. Also don't be afraid to reach for him as he could put up number one WR numbers.
10. Donald Driver(Packers)
-Brett Favre's favorite target is in line for another great season as Green Bay tries to venture into the playoffs for possibly the last time with their Hall of Fame QB. Driver has made a nice career for himself despite not having top-notch speed and due to the fact Green Bay lacks another WR of Donald's ability, another 90 catch season is very possible. Although you would like to see him score more than the 7 TD's he recorded last season, those in point/reception leagues will especially value the fact that Favre will look to him first on every pass he goes back to throw. Draft him around the 5th round and you have yourself a top number two wideout. One of my favorite receiving options to draft.
11. Javon Walker(Broncos)
-it was a comeback season of sorts in 2006 for Javon Walker after missing almost the entire 2005 season with an injured knee. The great speed and ability to make the deep catch were all still a part of his repertoire and thus all the fears were alleviated about whether he could be the same player he was before he got hurt. There will be some growing pains for sure as second-year QB Jay Cutler will struggle some in his first year as a starter but already Walker is his favorite target when going back to pass. If you're looking for a 90-catch guy, that Walker is not your man. Denver is a run-oriented offense and so reasonable expectations center on around 75 catches, although he will pile up the yardage and is a better than-average TD source. So overall Walker is a solid number 2 WR you should feel comfortable drafting.
12. Lee Evans(Bills)
-Evans rose to stardom in 2006 with an 82 catch, 8 TD breakout. Probably the biggest home run threat in all of football, Evans had an absolutely incredible 265-yard performance in a win over the Houston Texans. The improvement of QB JP Losman further legitimizes Evans' long-term potential to succeed and I believe he could make an even bigger leap into maybe even top five status this coming season. If you're going to reach for one WR in your draft, be sure to make it this guy.
13. Andre Johnson(Texans)
-Johnson is an interesting option in fantasy circles for a number of reasons. No one doubts his ability as he led the NFL in pass receptions last season(alarm sounding point/reception players). Awesome as that total is, the only problem is that they resulted in only 5 TD's for 1,147 yards. To put it in perspective, Lee Evans of Buffalo piled up 150 more yards with 21 fewer receptions, while scoring 3 more TD's. So my point in all this is the fact that Johnson will indeed pile up receptions as he is the only legitimate top-notch receiving option on the Texan roster and if you're in the point/reception leagues, then feel free to draft him as high as round 3. Otherwise, expect a repeat in his 2006 numbers which may not yield enough points to make him worth the effort in TD heavy leagues.
14. Marques Colston(Saints)
-call me naïve, but I still need to see more before I jump on the Marques Colston bandwagon. Sure his performance last season(70 catches, 8 TD's) was truly one of the biggest out-of-nowhere breakouts in NFL history. Is it possible Colston is the biggest "Rudy" in NFL history or is he another Michael Clayton waiting to happen? I think the answer falls somewhere in between and I believe there are much safer options to choose from than Colston. Let's see him have another 2006 season before he gains our fantasy respect.
15. TJ Houshmandzadeh(Bengals)
-the other half of the Cincinnati aerial assault, Housmandzadeh showed the NFL world he was much more than a possession receiver as he out-caught his more-hyped teammate Chad Johnson(90 catches to 87). He also recorded 9 TD's to Johnson's 7. Although I believe those numbers will reverse themselves this season due to more defensive attention devoted to TJ, I still believe he can have a great season. I expect a slight decrease in his receptions(80 sounds about right) with around 7-9 TD's. Sounds like a nice pickup to me. If you drafted Chad Johnson, reach for this guy so you can feel cool that you have them both! ?
16. Darrell Jackson(49ers)
-it was an up-and-down 2006 season for Darrell Jackson as his 10 TD's were a nice bonus for fantasy owners but his 63 receptions were a disappointment. Much of the latter had to do with an injured toe that made him miss the last three games of the regular season. It seemed the Seahawks were fed up with Jackson's injuries as they allowed him to skip over to division rival San Francisco where he instantly becomes QB Alex Smith's top weapon. If he can manage to stay healthy, the still young Jackson(age 28) could have a bounce back season that includes his customary 80-plus receptions and 8-10 scores. Don't be afraid to draft him but just know he tends to always miss a game or two during the year.
17. Randy Moss(Patriots)
-the biggest NFL off-season transaction without a doubt was the gutsy call by NE to trade for mercurial receiver Randy Moss. Once the top dog at his position while with Minnesota, the star dimmed considerable on Moss during two mostly turbulent, ineffective seasons with the Oakland Raiders. Moss' petulance wore thin in the locker room and pretty soon it was apparent he was only giving half effort towards the end of last season. Now with a golden opportunity to get his big-play name back with perennial contender NE, look for Moss to be on his best behavior as he tries to coexist with the drill sergeant ways of coach Bill Belichick. Although I believe Moss' days of catching 100 passes and 12-15 TD's are long gone, I believe he still can be a big-time player with around 80 catches for 10 scores sounding about right. Of course this situation bears watching since NE traditionally spreads the balls around which may not please the greedy Moss. However I don't believe Randy will blow this opportunity to win the ring he so desperately craves. Draft him as long as you expect him to perform like a number 2 receiver instead of the 1 he used to be. Be prepared with a good backup in case he finds trouble however. Will sink or swim for you so get ready for the roller coaster ride.
18. Plaxico Burress(Giants)
-New York's big-play wideout had another good but not great season in 2006 as he scored his customary better-than-average TD's(10), while securing less than big-time reception totals(63). This makes Burress a frustrating player to own as one week he will have an 8-catch, 2 TD day and than follow it up with a 2 catch whitewash. Still in TD stressed leagues, Burress is a decent number 2 option and thus shouldn't be ignored. However try to do better before you decide to take him for your club.
19. Hines Ward(Steelers)
-a less-than stellar 2006 season began whispers that maybe the 31-year-old Ward might have lost a step. The real reason however for the seemingly lackluster totals(74 catches, 6 TD's) was the absence of QB Ben Roesthlisberger for a good portion of the year. Now fully healthy, Big Ben and Ward should be able to rediscover the chemistry they exhibited during 2004 and 2005. Although I don't foresee a blockbuster season ahead, expect Ward to improve both his reception total and TD's in 2007. Draft him as your number 2 receiver and you won't be disappointed.
20. Reggie Brown
-many fantasy owners were predicting a breakout season from Reggie Brown in 2006 but even though it might have happened, the late addition of Donte Stallworth relegated Brown to second-tier status in Philly's WR hierarchy. Now with Stallworth gone, the number 1 job is Brown's to lose. HE still put up respectable numbers last season(46 catches) and displayed a nose for the end zone(8 TD's). With coach Andy Reid historically favoring a pass-heavy offense, it is possible Brown will truly have the breakout year everyone predicted for him with it coming one year later than originally anticipated. Draft him hoping he has that breakout year and serve as your number two wideout.
21. Laveraneous Coles(Jets)
-Coles more than delighted his owners in 2006 as he hauled in a more-than-expected 91 catches and over 1,000 yards. The chemistry he had with QB Chad Pennington before he signed with the free Redskins as a free agent a few years ago was still evident and there is no reason to believe he can't put up similar numbers. When it comes to the TD department however, Coles takes a backseat to his partner Jerricho Cotchery. Coles was never a TD machine to begin with so this shouldn't negatively impact him much for those who are aware of this. You still get a nice package here and you target him as a number 2 receiver.
22. Vincent Jackson(Chargers)
-I may be guilty of over ranking this second-year player but he is 2007 potential is that good. 27 catches in 2006 don't stand out much but the 6 TD's do. With WR Keenan McCardell no longer with the club and Eric Parker being nothing more than a possession receiver, Jackson has a terrific chance of becoming the number one guy for a potentially explosive offense. QB Phillip Rivers will be that much more comfortable behind center in his second year as a starter and the deep bombs the two seemed to routinely connect on late in '06 stand a good chance of becoming a weekly trend. HE may not become a star overnight, but the TD's will cover what he lacks in the reception department. Draft as your number 3 with the potential to be a solid number 2 if things develop correctly.
23. Santana Moss(Redskins)
-after his Pro-Bowl, highlight reel 2005 season, Moss came back down to earth in '06 as he recorded only 55 catches for 6 TD's. Not what fantasy owners were expecting. Moss historically has been very inconsistent with his performances and he will alternate good games with bad ones. His ridiculous speed however will provide many big-play opportunities and thus chances for long scoring receptions. Will serve as a good number 3 wideout so make room for him and hope his Pro Bowl year's alternate.
24. Jerricho Cotchery(Jets)
-what a find this guy was in 2006 as Cotchery exhibited the talent he displayed at Louisville by grabbing 82 passes for 6 TD's. Blessed with better-than-average speed, Cotchery was the big-play threat in New York's passing attack. Heading into 2007, Cotchery has the chance to be even better and wrest the mantle from Laveranues Coles as the top man, if that hasn't happened already. Draft him if he is still available in the middle rounds for possibly a number 2 player.
25. Chris Chambers(Dolphins)
-without a doubt the biggest WR bust in 2006 as Chambers as he went from 82 catches with 10 TD's in 2005 to 59 catches for 4 Td's in 2006. The 677 yards were also unacceptable for a receiver of his ability. Some of that could be blamed on the fact the Dolphins were inept in almost every sense last season and having Joey Harrington as your QB definitely won't help you either. With veteran Trent Green on board, look for Chambers to become his new Tony Gonzalez. I think Chambers will be re-energized to play with someone of Green caliber and thus will lose the concentration lapses that caused him to drop too many easy throws in '06. Look for a rebound here with potential to get back to number 1 status if all goes smoothly. Draft him as a big bounce-back candidate.
26. Deion Branch(Seahawks)
-without a 1,000 receiving season on his resume, Branch is not someone you target until the middle rounds of your draft. In fact I am going to avoid him altogether because his inconsistency will drive a fantasy owner crazy. The former Super Bowl MVP is talented however and he will have the occasional 8-catch, 125 yard day. The problem with Branch is that his lack of height will prevent him from being a dominant wideout week in and week out. A number three wideout.
27. Terry Glenn(Cowboys)
-Glenn proved in 2006 that he is not done yet as his 70 catch, 6 TD season kept him relevant in fantasy terms. His explosive speed is still his main weapon and if he can avoid the nagging injuries that have always seemed to be a problem for him, Glenn could match last season's numbers. Risky pick but he always seems to have decent numbers at the end of the year.
28. Mark Clayton(Ravens)
-Baltimore's best receiving option for 2007 will most likely be TE Todd Heap, by third-year WR Mark Clayton stands a good chance of having a breakout year to give the Ravens a pair of vertical threats. One of the better sleeper candidates overall this preseason, Clayton has the ability and the determination to succeed. Although Baltimore is a run-first offense, look for QB Steve McNair to utilize this deep-ball pass catcher. Draft him for his potentially explosive potential.
29. Braylon Edwards(Browns)
-still waiting for Edwards to fulfill the grandiose expectations he had after being the third overall draft choice in the 2005 draft. Less than ideal workout habits and off-the-field troubles have conspired to prevent Edwards from being the 80-catch, 8 TD receiver everyone envisioned coming out of Michigan. Has tremendous speed with the ability to make the home run catch. The problem here is that weak-armed QB Charlie Frye is expected to be the starter entering the season while rookie Brady Quinn develops. Thus the long-ball will be difficult for Edwards to procure. Draft him for the possible breakout in the magical third season but don't be surprised if he lets you down again.
30. Bernard Berrian(Bears)
-Chicago's deep threat caught 6 TD's and it almost seemed like he had a deep catch just about ever week. With fellow wideout Mushin Muhammud on the downside of his career, Berrian has the chance to grab the majority of the throws from QB Rex Grossman. Will most likely prove on the 51 catches he managed last season and contribute at the very least 5 TD's. Makes a great number 3 receiver as he could ascend to number 2 status by the end of the upcoming season.
The Rest(Third WR's Only)
31. Joe Horn(Falcons)
-once a fantasy star, injuries and age have relegated Joe Horn to third WR status. His 37 catches and 4 TD's in 2006 were about what he would put up in 6 or 7 games while in his prime years so his best days are clearly behind him. He is a solid veteran however who still can make a fantasy contribution to your team so look to him as a third WR.
32. Donte' Stallworth(Patriots)
-Stallworth was looking like he was going to have a breakout 2006 season with the Eagles until more injuries set him back once again. Blessed with top-notch speed and good hands, Stallworth has everything as star WR needs to succeed. However he never can stay healthy which most likely has to do with his slight frame. Now with the NE Patriots, Stallworth is in a crowded receiving conga line with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kelly Washington so his overall numbers don't stand to improve much from the 38 catches and 5 TD's he recorded in 2006. Draft him since he is playing for pass-happy NE but have good backups ready for when he gets injured once again.
33. Joey Galloway(Buc's)
-one one the NFL's fastest players since entering the league out of Ohio State, Joey Galloway never fully realized the potential many foresaw for him. At the age of 35, Galloway is clearly on the downside of his career but the speed is still there which makes him somewhat appealing. The Buccaneer's QB situation is a mess however and Galloway has never been one to pile up the reception totals in his career. Pass on him unless you really are hurting for a receiver.
34. Kevin Curtis(Eagles)
-after spending some productive years with the Rams, Kevin Curtis heads east to the City Of Brotherly Love. A blue-collar receiver all the way through, Curtis uses what he has to make himself useful. Those tools include good speed with incredible hands. Picture a poor man's Ed McCaffrey who wasn't so bad. A nice player who can contribute for you in a number 3 WR capacity.
35. Greg Jennings(Packers)
-with Donald Driver seemingly being option 1 and 1A for QB Brett Favre when he goes back to throw, many failed to see the decent rookie season put up by Greg Jennings. After making a good impression in training camp, Jennings went on to record 45 catches for 3 TD's which places him in the number 3 WR vicinity. Still has room to improve so make sure you make an effort to draft him towards the end of your draft.
36. Devery Henderson(Saints)
-Henderson is another LSU receiver(read; Michael Clayton) who just hasn't made a good transition to the NFL. Has great speed but always seems to vanish for long periods of time each week. Injuries also a problem for him lately. Pass on him and see if he starts to work out his issues.
37. DJ Hackett(Seahawks)
-with WR Darrell Jackson signing with San Francisco in the off-season, DJ Hackett has a chance to further build off his solid 2006 season. 45 catches and 4 TD's in a crowded receiving corps was more than solid in fact for this youngster and more improvement is expected in 2007. Could be a good number 3 WR but more suited for number 4.
38. Ronald Curry(Raiders)
-despite only recording 1 TD, Ronald Curry had a very good 2006 season for the Oakland Raiders. Grabbing 62 passes for such a pathetic team last year makes his accomplishments much more impressive. With Randy Moss now in NE, the spotlight is all to himself and I expect solid number 3 WR numbers out of him with the chance to move up to number 2 status. If the team wasn't so bad, would have ranked him much higher. Draft him late however and bask in selecting a nice sleeper.
39. Issac Bruce(Rams)
-clearly on the downside of his career, Issac Bruce is still a solid veteran who can help your team in a pinch. One of the better route runners in the league, Bruce habitually finds the open seam in opposing defenses. The days of 90 catches and 8 TD's are long over but 70 and 4 sound reasonable. Draft him as your fourth wideout. Always a good performer in this game.
40. Mushin Muhammud(Bears)
-one the wrong side of his prime, Mushin Muhammud's days as a 10 TD force are over and never will return. HE still is a solid route runner with good hands so he has a place on your bench. Draft him as insurance and that's it.
Don't Draft
41. Derrick Mason(Ravens)
42. Santonio Holmes(Steelers)
43. Eddie Kennison(Chiefs)
44. Brandon Jones(Titans)
45. Amani Toomer(Giants)
46. Reggie Williams(Jaguars)
47. Mike Furrey(Lions)
48. Brandon Marshall(Broncos)
49. Drew Bennett(Rams)
50. Jerry Porter(Raiders)
51. Arnaz Battle(49ers)
52. Hank Baskett(Eagles)
53. Michael Jenkins(Falcons)
54. Marty Booker(Dolphins)
55. Rod Smith(Broncos)
56. Wes Welker(Patriots)
Co-founder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.
Fantasy Football Quandary - Are Targets a Vital Statistic?
It seems the trendy statistic in the NFL is the number of targets a player receives. Quite simply, it's the number of times the ball is thrown to a player. Obviously it's important that a player gets thrown to in order to put up numbers, but is it being over-hyped?
Here are the top 12 targeted WRs (Statistics as of 10/16/09):
Andre Johnson - 52
Nate Burleson - 49
Steve Smith (NYG) - 49
Randy Moss - 48
Reggie Wayne - 48
Chad Ochocinco - 46
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 45
Steve Smith (CAR) - 43
Santonio Holmes - 41
Calvin Johnson - 41
Wes Welker - 41
Hines Ward - 40
Now here are the top 12 fantasy WRs (non-PPR leagues):
Steve Smith (NYG) - 72.1
Reggie Wayne - 69.9
Andre Johnson - 67.7
Brandon Marshall - 54.8
Chad Ochocinco - 53.0
Nate Burleson - 53.0
Mario Manningham - 52.2
Miles Austin - 51.1
Roddy White - 50.9
Larry Fitzgerald - 50.0
Vincent Jackson - 49.3
Hines Ward - 49.0
Notice that five of the top targeted WRs don't show up.
The next four highest scoring WRs are DeSean Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Santana Moss, and Percy Harvin, which makes them the 13th-16th ranked fantasy WRs.
Jackson, Sims-Walker, and Harvin don't rank among the top 30 targeted WRs. Santana Moss is 22nd.
Steve Smith (CAR), Wes Welker, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin, Justin Gage, Eddie Royal, Mark Clayton, Mushin Muhammad, Bryant Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Louis Murphy, and Patrick Crayton are among the top 30 targeted WRs yet they aren't among the top 30 fantasy scoring WRs. That's a staggering 40%.
While it is a useful statistic, do not put too much stock in it. The most important statistic for a WR is TDs. It is no coincidence that the top ten scoring WRs all have 3 or 4 TDs so far. Obviously a close second is yardage. That's where the scoring comes from.
PPR leagues add a point per reception, but I am vehemently opposed to PPR leagues. It overvalues possession receivers and short-changes deep threats. For the life of me I can not figure out why someone would agree that 3 catches for 15 yards should be more valuable than 1 30 yard catch. That's a different discussion for a different day.
The bottom line is use targets as a guide, but don't ignore the age old indicators of fantasy production.
Ryan Lester
http://lesterslegends.com
Helping you win your fantasy football, baseball, basketball, and hockey leagues.
2009 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Preview
The Pittsburg Steelers won their 6th Super Bowl title and 2nd in 4 years in 2008 by defeating the Arizona Cardinals 27-23 in a heartstopping classic. Ben Roethlisberger rebounded from his poor showing a couple years earlier against Seattle by completing 21-30 passes for 256 yards and the game winning TD to Santonio Holmes with just seconds left. Although the Steelers capped their impressive season by winning the Super Bowl they were an inconsistent bunch all year long in terms of fantasy performance. With pretty much the entire team returning this year will the Steelers offer fantasy owners more week to week options heading into 2009? I examine that now.
As good as the ultimate result was for Roethlisberger and the Steelers last year the QB proved to be a nightmare for owners last year with his inconsistent play. Roethlisberger finished2008 with 3314 passing yards along with 17 TD's and 15 Int's for a rating of 80.2. Not exactly the type of numbers you are looking for out of your number 1 QB. The bottom line is that Pittsburg is, was, and will always be a power running team and quite frankly when Ben is asked to throw a lot he usually gets himself into trouble. Ben is a very good QB just not a good fantasy QB. He possesses great leadership skills and has his statistical moments but do not trust him with your fantasy team because you will be greatly disappointed. Ben actually went in the 3rd round in my draft last summer and the owner who selected him won 2 games all year. Owners seem to be getting the point as Roethlisberger has been going around the 9th-10th rounds in the mock drafts I have been participating in. Treat him as a serviceable number 2 options heading into 2009 but nothing more than that. There are far better options.
When successful the meat and potatoes of the Steeler offense lies with the running game. Last year the team's backfield was hit with numerous injuries leaving Head Coach Mike Tomlin painfully thin at the position. Once again Willie Parker failed to make it through the entire season missing 5 games and finishing the season with 791 yards and 5 TD's. Parker has only played 16 games once in his career and he will turn 29 about halfway through the season. When healthy Parker is definitely a number 1 option at RB but when is he ever healthy? Furthermore, the Steelers will certainly be looking for 2nd year back Rashard Mendenhall to make much more of an impact in his sophomore season after playing in only 4 games as a rookie. The Steelers are extremely high on Mendenhall who is built more in the mode of what a typical Pittsburg back usually looks like. At 5-10 225 Mendenhall is a power runner who will inevitably steal short yardage and goal line carries from Parker who has never really been a TD machine to begin with. With both Parker and Mendenhall both out of commission the Steelers emergency plan actually stepped in and played fairly well. Mewelde Moore rushed for 589 yards and 5 TD's down the stretch run while also chipping in with 320 yards receiving and another score. The ex Minnesota Vikings castoff proved more than capable of holding the fort down while Parker was readying himself for the playoffs. In terms of fantasy potential I like Mendenhall the most out of all the Steelers RB's for the upcoming season. It will be a miracle if Parker stays healthy the entire year and even if he does Mendehall will be the goal line back at the very least. That being said treat Parker as a low end number 3 fantasy RB heading into the season. Mendenhall is far more interesting because if (when) Parker goes down he will have a real opportunity to become a stud due to his talents and the system he plays in. Mendenhall has been going between the 8th-10th rounds in the mock drafts I have been doing and spending a late round selection on him could prove to be a treasure for you as the season goes on. With Mendenhall back in the fold Moore's value goes down dramatically and he has typically not been drafted in these preliminary mock drafts.
Similarly to Roethlisberger the Steelers receiving corps has it's moments but in my estimation provides fantasy owners with nothing more than stop gap/match-up options on a very limited basis. Although showing definite signs of slowing down Hines Ward continues to be the Steelers number 1 option through the air. Ward remains a cagey veteran who is almost as well known for his blocking skills as he is at catching the ball. Ward had a really nice '08 statistically accounting for 82 catches for 1047 yards and 7 TD's. The 1047 yards represents his best yardage total since he went for 1163 in 2003. Ward will continue to be the receiver that Roethlisberger will look for when he is in a pinch or when the Steelers need a clutch catch. After you grab your first 3 receivers Ward is a nice option for you to have on your bench who is worthy of playing time depending upon who Pittsburg is playing. Super Bowl hero Holmes will be the Steelers number 2 option come opening day. Holmes caught 55 balls for 821 yards and 5 TD's in 2008 and with Nate Washington leaving for Tennessee should see more balls thrown his way. Holmes has much more big play ability than Ward does at this stage of their careers and thus Holmes is more valuable in fantasy terms especially if your league awards bonuses for long TD's as mine does. Treat Holmes as a nice number 3 WR or Flex option come draft day this August. The only other Steeler receiver that is worth a look is 2nd year pro Limas Sweed. Sweed had a rather forgettable rookie campaign catching only 6 balls for 64 yards and failed to reach the end zone. Pittsburg has big plans for Sweed and he is the big target the team has been yearning for since the departure of Plaxico Burress. Sweed has some real sleeper potential heading into '09 and is worthy of a late round pick. If he happens to not get drafted in your league be sure to snag him off the waiver wire if you get a chance and let the chips fall where they may. Keep and eye on him. TE Heath Miller is really not a number 1 option and although at times Ben will look for him in the Red Zone he is not really utilized enough to be anything more than a backup used only in emergency purposes.
The Steelers DST is always a solid unit and if you play in a league like mine that rewards DST's with enormous point totals that can greatly assist your chances of winning a championship. I know full well what a good DST can do as I rode the Eagles DST to a title last year. With Troy Polamalu and James Harrison continuing to anchor down the defence treat the Steelers DST as an elite unit and one of the top 3 DST's on the board this summer. Well, that is it for the champs. Next up: The Cincinnati Bengals.
Chris Limburg is the fanatical purveyor of gothicfootball.com: A Oakland Raider and fantasy football blog that provides commentary on everything that is the NFL and fantasy football. Sign up for my free newsletter at: [http://www.gothicfootball.com]
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